Osun 2018: The Major Contenders & Their Winning Chances
Elections in Osun state have been popularly predicted by various political analysts and majority of these predictions have come to past. However, this year election seems so close that different political analysts have found it difficult to pitch their tents with a particular candidate. With due respect to the other political parties in the state, the major political parties on the lips of the people of Osun are PDP (Mr. Ademola Adeleke), APC (Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola) and SDP (Dr. Iyiola Omisore).
The Osun election is a strong determinant of what will transpire in the forthcoming 2019 elections. Below is an analysis of the perspective of the people of Osun as gathered by our correspondents on the streets of Ife, Ede, Osogbo and Ilesa.
Dr. Iyiola Omisore (Social Democratic Party)
The sympathy man as called by one the interview respondents in Ife is no doubt one to look out for in the race. As evident by his constant appearance in the scenes of Osun politics, Dr. Omisore is the most experienced contestant among the three major contenders. Omisore who once served as the deputy governor of the state, has keenly contested for the post in the past and sees this election as his time to finally hold the office. Although from different political parties, his supporters have constantly compared him with President Muhammadu Buhari in terms of his determination and repeated efforts to achieve his political ambition.
Senator Iyiola Omisore who hails from Ife is cocksure about his victory in his local government but that is not enough to see him come out victorious in tomorrow’s elections. Even in Ife, residents and natives of Modakeke still hold grudges against him for his alleged malign roles in the previous wars engaged between Ife and Modakeke. Irrespective of that, however, Omisore is financially stable and has all it takes to battle in the election ground tomorrow. The fact that he is also the only Christian candidate among the three major contestants might give him some edge in the religious stake. One unanimous word in the mouth of those sampled by our correspondents is that Omisore is the sympathy man, people will sympathize with him and vote for him. How true this is will be decided in the poles tomorrow. Sympathy has won people’s heart and Aristotle has also backed this in his “Poetics”. The question now is Can Omisore sympathy face earn him the governorship seat in Osun for the next four years? Let’s go to the polls to decide.
Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola
Although Omisore is the symapthy man, the man tagged the Power man is Gboyega Oyetola. The reasons for this is not far-fetched; he is the governorship candidate of the ruling political party, APC and he has the backing of all political gladiators in APC, particularly Bola Ahmed Tinubu who is also his cousin. Paradoxically, Oyetola is the popular unpopular candidate. He has been in active politics for over twenty years, he was among the prominent Nigerians who founded the Alliance for Democracy in 1998 and has remained relevant in the contemporary Osun politics as he served as the Chief of staff to Gov. Rauf Aregbesola for eight years. However, he is quite unpopular on the streets of Osun but being in the ruling APC, that would not be much problem.
Oyetola chances rests on how well Argbesola and the APC market him and this has been done effectively by the ruling party. Although Aregbesola’s infamous face in some parts of Osun state could serve as a disadvantage to him and his unique selling message in all rallies which is continuity and consolidation might take him up the ladder or perhaps may not get a ladder at all from those who despise the administration of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. Irrespective of how you view it, Oyetola position in the election is second either to no one or to someone. He has the power, Omisore has the sympathy, what does Adeleke have?
Mr. Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke
The Osun election has been keenly contested by two candidates during the last five governorship elections but this time around, it is a three-horse race. This is a result of the popularity of Ademola Adeleke. Adeleke is the popular man and a big thanks to the massive youth mobilization strategy employed by his campaign team. There is no doubt about Adeleke’s popularity in the polls and the massive integration of Davido, his nephew, to his campaigns has earned him more popularity within and beyond Osun. Politics is however not recorded in the studio and Adeleke’s presence in the political space has further made him one that you can place your bet on.
The dancing senator as he is called by some political commentators is resting on his deceased elder brother’s laurels and this has been a great advantage to him. He won the Osun west senatorial seat in July last year and has ever since then, increased his popularity in the Osun state political space. The late former governor Adeleke even in death remains a huge factor in Osun politics and the love the people have for the deceased is gradually being transferred to the younger Adeleke. Even the allies of the old Adeleke who are prominent Osun political players may support the younger Adeleke due to sentiments.
His stronghold is his constituency and he is expected to flawlessly emerge in the two local governments areas of Ede north and south as well as Egbedore local government. With few more local governments in Osun central and east senatorial districts, Adeleke might paddle the ship of Osun state for the next four years. Omisore’s defection from the PDP might affect the space covered by the PDP in time past and the recent ruse about his O’level certificate has proven to be a great advantage to his opponents and a colossal disadvantage to Adeleke.
This election is unlike many others and it will inevitably determine how the 2019 election will play out in the southwestern part of Nigeria in particular. The three major candidates have the financial muscle, Omisore has the Sympathy face, Gboyega Oyetola has the power of the ruling party and Ademola Adeleke has the popularity fueled by his social media antics and his famous Adeleke dynasty in the state of Osun.
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